So What's Really Happening in the Recreational Real Estate Market?

1. Haliburton Highlands — Buyer’s Market

• Inventory is currently significantly above the five‑year average, causing price pressure in the region  

• Average sales price for waterfront properties sits around $816K for the past 3 months (May 1- Jul 21, 2025), down from $915K in for the same time period last year.  That's a 10.8% decrease vs last year.

• Days on market for the May-Jul time period sits around 40 days which is similar to last year. However please note that DOM is calculated based on the most recent price that the property sells at and many properties are taking several price reductions before they sell so actual days on market can be much longer if the property is not priced close to current market value when originally listed. 

• Slumping investor demand (especially STR licensing tightening) and high interest‑rate pressure have contributed to the downward pressure on prices. This market provides opportunity for buyers to obtain a waterfront property as a lower price than many of the other top recreational markets in Ontario and a significantly lower price than what they would have paid just a couple years ago. 

Bottom line: Haliburton is a buyer’s market, with plenty of supply, and reasonable prices. This presents an opportunity for  buyers who have been waiting for prices to come down before they enter the market.

2. Muskoka Region — The Great Divide

• Months of inventory had increased YOY.

• Median sale price for waterfront has dropped from approx $1,258,000 from 2024  (May 1- Jul 31, 2025) to $1,087,000 in 2025 (May 1 - Jul 31, 2025).  That is a 13.6% decrease.

• Luxury segment (> $3M) retains strength: high-tier buyers remain less sensitive to market fluctuations, keeping high-end prices buoyant  .

Bottom line: Muskoka is highly segmented: ultra-luxury waterfront properties remain resilient, while mid-tier waterfront has softened significantly—a clear buyer’s market for most price ranges. Lots of good opportunities for buyers, especially in the mid-tier waterfront market.

3. Kawartha Lakes (Peterborough Region) — Balanced 

• The Kawartha Lakes and Peterborough region shows a balanced market: The May-Jul 2025 time period saw a 18.5% increase in sales but also a rise in the number of active listing leading to modest pricing pressure .

• The change in sale price depends on how you calculate it. Average sale price for May-Jul 2025 increased by just under 2.5% vs the same time period in 2024 whereas the median sale price decreased by just over 3.5% during the same time period.

• Days on market remained relatively consistent for both time periods.

• Market draws in both retirees and younger families, attracted by relative affordability, proximity to the GTA, and lifestyle appeal.

Bottom line: Kawartha Lakes is a balanced market, offering steady demand, and reasonable pricing.

4. Bancroft (Hastings) Area — Overlooked Bargains with Caution

• The amount of inventory and days on market for waterfront properties has increased dramatically for the time period of May-Jul 25 vs the previous year.   Properties on average are taking over 50% more time to sell 

• The median sale price for waterfront properties was $590,000 for May 1-Jul 31, 2025  vs $615,000 for the same time period in 2024.  Many properties have however taken multiple price cuts before selling.

• Bancroft remains relatively remote, with limited inventory movement—but interest is slowly increasing as affordability draws attention.

Bottom line: Bancroft offers entry price points below most other markets, yet faces sluggish transaction velocity—making it a high-reward but higher-risk market.  

5. Simcoe County / Lake Simcoe Area — Balanced

• Prices remain relatively steady despite broader uncertainty in Ontario’s recreational market. The change in sale price depends on how you calculate it. Average sale price for May-Jul 2025 increased by 1% vs the same time period in 2024 whereas the median sale price decreased by 7.5% during the same time period.

• Average days on market for the May-Jul time period are exactly the same as they were for the same time period last year. 

Bottom line: Simcoe offers a relatively stable market, particularly for waterfront or lifestyle-ready properties.

6. Parry Sound Region — Deep Buyer's Market

• The amount of inventory has increased signiificantly with 10.4% fewer sales in the May 1 - Jul 31, 2025 time period versus the same time period last year. 

• The change in sale price YOY for the May 1-Jul 31 time period is the most pronounced out of all the regions analysed.  Where you are looking as average sale price or median sale price prices are down 23% vs last year.

Bottom line: Parry Sound is in a firm buyer’s market, with rising inventory, slower sales, and price reductions—especially in less premium areas.  Great deals to be had for buyers, especially the further you get from the GTA.

Summary & Comparative Overview

Key Drivers & Broader Trends Across All Six

• Economic uncertainty, including tariff talks, mortgage rate shifts, and affordability concerns, continue to suppress buyer confidence—especially among mid‑market buyers. 

• Choosing region and segment matters: luxury waterfronts and areas closer to the GTA remain stronger, while mid‑tier markets and those further from the GTA are correcting.

• Demographic shift: Gen‑X families, younger couples, and near‑retirees are increasingly dominating purchases, often seeking year‑round or hybrid locations.

• Short‑term rental regulations are impacting investor appeal—most notably in Haliburton and Muskoka—which has triggered higher listing activity.

• Weather‑related insurance risks (flooding or storm damage) are more top‑of‑mind in certain regions like Haliburton and Simcoe, influencing buyer caution; though specific to Southern Ontario, this is a broader trend identified in recent reporting.

Final Takeaway

Each of these six recreational regions is experiencing a distinct blend of pricing dynamics, inventory levels, and buyer‑seller sentiment:

• Haliburton and Bancroft offer buyer‑friendly pricing and opportunity—but with lower slower transaction pace.

• Muskoka is sharply bifurcated: luxury waterfront remains strong, while everything else is facing correction and firmly favouring buyers..

• Kawartha Lakes remains the most balanced, with reasonable pricing and steady demand due to lifestyle pull and proximity to the GTA.

• Simcoe County remains mostly balanced due to lifestyle pull and proximity to the GTA.  

• Parry Sound firmly favours buyers with signifiant decreases in prices YOY, especially in less premium areas further from the GTA.